[Depth]Comprehensively start the new energy bus policy trend and trend


The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has ranked first in the world for two consecutive years,and new energy buses have global leading advantages.The release of the new subsidy policy marks the transformation of China's new energy vehicle management thinking from inclusive to supporting the superior and the strong.In the post subsidy era,the development of new energy buses will become more rational after experiencing the fraud and compensation storm.This monthly report will interpret in detail the impact of the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(CJ[2016]No.958)on new energy buses,and predict the future policy development trend and trend.

1、Interpretation of the new subsidy policy

On December 30,2016,the Ministry of Finance,the Ministry of Science and Technology,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(CJ[2016]No.958).The new subsidy policy has five characteristics:First,the subsidy amount has decreased,with the largest reduction of 6-8m passenger cars,more than 60%,as shown in Figure 1.At the same time,the total amount of local financial subsidies at all levels shall not exceed 50%of the amount of central financial subsidies for bicycles.2、The subsidy threshold was raised.The energy consumption per unit load and the driving range of pure electric vehicles are required to be stricter,and the technical requirements such as the proportion of the total mass of the newly added battery system to the curb weight of the whole vehicle,the system energy density,the fast charging rate,and the fuel saving rate are required.3、It is the first time to distinguish the types of fast charging and non fast charging buses,and the technology of fast charging pure electric buses has been recognized.4、Improve safety requirements.5、The inclusive policy has shifted to the survival of the fittest,and a dynamic management system of the Catalogue has been established.

Among the subsidy policies in 2017,the adjustment of new energy buses was the largest,and the requirements for various technical indicators and safety technical conditions were also greatly improved.In the short term,the profitability of the entire bus industry is under pressure,while in the medium and long term,it is conducive to improving industry concentration and promoting the survival of the fittest.The specific impact analysis is as follows:

1.The technical route of ternary power battery has more cost advantages

Under the new subsidy policy in 2017,on the premise of obtaining the highest subsidies from the central and local governments,the total installed power of 6 m,8.5 m,10.5 m and 12 m pure electric buses was calculated respectively,and the cost comparison after deducting subsidies was calculated under the three power battery technology routes of ternary battery,lithium iron phosphate and lithium titanate,as shown in Figure 2.The new energy bus under the ternary technology route has the lowest cost after deducting subsidies,and has more cost advantages.It can be predicted that under multiple technical requirements such as driving range,energy density and lightweight,and under the condition of ensuring vehicle safety,ternary batteries will become the mainstream trend of the industry in the future,and the market concentration will rapidly increase.

See Figure 3 for the offset of comprehensive subsidy amount and battery cost,and the proportion of subsidy amount in vehicle quotation.The subsidy advantage of 6-8m vehicles is obviously reduced,and the subsidy is not enough to offset the cost of power battery.The 10-12m car has obvious advantages and is expected to become the mainstream product in the future market.

2.10-12m pure electric bus will become the mainstream product in the market

The subsidy standard for new energy passenger cars is based on the vehicle charging capacity.In this study,six representative new energy buses of 6-8m,8-10m and 10-12m that entered the announcement list in 2016 are selected,as shown in Table 1.

This point can be seen from the Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(the first batch)released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 23,2017:a total of 76 products entered the announcement directory,with 71%of large passengers,21%of medium passengers,and 8%of light passengers,and minor passenger products were basically withdrawn.

3.Structural changes will occur in the market pattern of new energy buses

The fast charging pure electric bus ushers in a good opportunity.In 2017,the new energy subsidy policy divided new energy buses into four categories:non fast charging pure electric buses,fast charging pure electric buses,plug-in hybrid electric buses(including incremental programs)and fuel cell buses.The identity of fast charging buses was recognized and explicit subsidies were given.As buses have fixed routes and bus stops,the quick charging of 5-15 minutes can solve the problem of difficult charging and fully meet the operational requirements of urban public transport.It is expected that the fast charging pure electric buses will develop rapidly in the field of public transport in 2017.

The sales of plug-in hybrid buses continued to decline.According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,507000 new energy vehicles were sold in 2016.Among them,171000 new energy buses and 19000 plug-in hybrid buses were sold.As the subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid buses has decreased significantly,it is expected that the sales of plug-in hybrid buses will further decrease in 2017.

[Depth]Comprehensively start the new energy bus policy trend and trend

Release time:March 17,2017 Number of hits:1106

The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in China has ranked first in the world for two consecutive years,and new energy buses have global leading advantages.The release of the new subsidy policy marks the transformation of China's new energy vehicle management thinking from inclusive to supporting the superior and the strong.In the post subsidy era,the development of new energy buses will become more rational after experiencing the fraud and compensation storm.This monthly report will interpret in detail the impact of the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(CJ[2016]No.958)on new energy buses,and predict the future policy development trend and trend.

1、Interpretation of the new subsidy policy

On December 30,2016,the Ministry of Finance,the Ministry of Science and Technology,the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the Notice on Adjusting the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(CJ[2016]No.958).The new subsidy policy has five characteristics:First,the subsidy amount has decreased,with the largest reduction of 6-8m passenger cars,more than 60%,as shown in Figure 1.At the same time,the total amount of local financial subsidies at all levels shall not exceed 50%of the amount of central financial subsidies for bicycles.2、The subsidy threshold was raised.The energy consumption per unit load and the driving range of pure electric vehicles are required to be stricter,and the technical requirements such as the proportion of the total mass of the newly added battery system to the curb weight of the whole vehicle,the system energy density,the fast charging rate,and the fuel saving rate are required.3、It is the first time to distinguish the types of fast charging and non fast charging buses,and the technology of fast charging pure electric buses has been recognized.4、Improve safety requirements.5、The inclusive policy has shifted to the survival of the fittest,and a dynamic management system of the Catalogue has been established.

Among the subsidy policies in 2017,the adjustment of new energy buses was the largest,and the requirements for various technical indicators and safety technical conditions were also greatly improved.In the short term,the profitability of the entire bus industry is under pressure,while in the medium and long term,it is conducive to improving industry concentration and promoting the survival of the fittest.The specific impact analysis is as follows:

1.The technical route of ternary power battery has more cost advantages

Under the new subsidy policy in 2017,on the premise of obtaining the highest subsidies from the central and local governments,the total installed power of 6 m,8.5 m,10.5 m and 12 m pure electric buses was calculated respectively,and the cost comparison after deducting subsidies was calculated under the three power battery technology routes of ternary battery,lithium iron phosphate and lithium titanate,as shown in Figure 2.The new energy bus under the ternary technology route has the lowest cost after deducting subsidies,and has more cost advantages.It can be predicted that under multiple technical requirements such as driving range,energy density and lightweight,and under the condition of ensuring vehicle safety,ternary batteries will become the mainstream trend of the industry in the future,and the market concentration will rapidly increase.

See Figure 3 for the offset of comprehensive subsidy amount and battery cost,and the proportion of subsidy amount in vehicle quotation.The subsidy advantage of 6-8m vehicles is obviously reduced,and the subsidy is not enough to offset the cost of power battery.The 10-12m car has obvious advantages and is expected to become the mainstream product in the future market.

2.10-12m pure electric bus will become the mainstream product in the market

The subsidy standard for new energy passenger cars is based on the vehicle charging capacity.In this study,six representative new energy buses of 6-8m,8-10m and 10-12m that entered the announcement list in 2016 are selected,as shown in Table 1.

This point can be seen from the Catalogue of Recommended Models for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles(the first batch)released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology on January 23,2017:a total of 76 products entered the announcement directory,with 71%of large passengers,21%of medium passengers,and 8%of light passengers,and minor passenger products were basically withdrawn.

3.Structural changes will occur in the market pattern of new energy buses

The fast charging pure electric bus ushers in a good opportunity.In 2017,the new energy subsidy policy divided new energy buses into four categories:non fast charging pure electric buses,fast charging pure electric buses,plug-in hybrid electric buses(including incremental programs)and fuel cell buses.The identity of fast charging buses was recognized and explicit subsidies were given.As buses have fixed routes and bus stops,the quick charging of 5-15 minutes can solve the problem of difficult charging and fully meet the operational requirements of urban public transport.It is expected that the fast charging pure electric buses will develop rapidly in the field of public transport in 2017.

The sales of plug-in hybrid buses continued to decline.According to the statistics of China Association of Automobile Manufacturers,507000 new energy vehicles were sold in 2016.Among them,171000 new energy buses and 19000 plug-in hybrid buses were sold.As the subsidy amount of plug-in hybrid buses has decreased significantly,it is expected that the sales of plug-in hybrid buses will further decrease in 2017.

4.Automobile enterprises will adjust the product cost performance ratio based on the new policy

Taking non fast charging passenger car products as the representative,this study starts from the dimension of driving mileage,sets up six scenarios:200km,250km,300km,400km,driving mileage under the highest subsidy,and the actual driving mileage of representative models,and makes a comparative analysis of the cost and subsidy relationship of products with different vehicle lengths.The study found that 6-8m,8-10m and 10-12m vehicles all have the lowest price difference between cost and subsidy and the highest cost performance under the highest subsidy.The subsidy policy still plays an important role in guiding the R&D and production of vehicle manufacturers.Therefore,it is expected that in the future,when enterprises re apply for the announcement catalogue,they will continue to research,develop and optimize bus products based on the subsidy amount and technical indicators,and on the premise that the products meet the requirements of basic performance indicators,with the maximum subsidy as the criterion.

2、Forecast and suggestions on future subsidy policies

The real problem of industrial policy is what kind of top-level strategy to design,what kind of institutional construction to develop,what kind of incentive mechanism to establish,and how to implement management.Only in this way can the government provide effective services for industrial development with a high probability.Roderick,an international economist,believes that the key for any special economy to do well in industrial policy lies in:(1)Embedding.Establish an institutionalized partnership between the government and the business community;(2)Incentives.On the one hand,support should be provided;on the other hand,all government support should be linked with some measurable performance indicators,and failure criteria and termination clauses should be clarified.(3)Accountability.The accountability mechanism of the government must be improved.In this regard,this study puts forward the following three suggestions.

1.Further improvement of technical requirements

Specify the requirements for product technical index improvement.The competent government departments have consulted with the enterprises in many ways,and in the future,the driving range test method of new energy buses will be adjusted from the 40km/h constant speed method to the working condition method.At the same time,the energy consumption per unit load mass and the proportion of the total mass of the battery system to the mass of the whole vehicle will also be further improved,putting forward higher requirements for the lightweight of the whole vehicle and power battery of enterprises.With the increasingly stringent technical standards for new energy buses,bus enterprises should make timely response and early preparation in the areas of product research and development,testing,etc.

2.Further tightening of subsidy management

Define measurable performance indicators and management rules.In the future,big data and cloud computing technology will be used to conduct all-round supervision and management of new energy buses in the full life cycle from multiple dimensions such as safety,operating mileage,energy consumption,passenger flow,etc.Products with longer operating mileage,fewer safety accidents and lower energy consumption will receive more subsidies.

3.Further improvement of subsidy standards

The economic theory of attaching importance to industrial policy.The subsidy standard should achieve a basic balance in covering the cost difference and promoting technological innovation.Therefore,it is very important to scientifically and rationally formulate the criteria for subsidy retrogression.In the future,technical and economic evaluation will be carried out for products of different technical routes.At the same time,the scientific subsidy data is finally obtained by comparing the operation supervision data of new energy buses.

Conclusion:

It is an inevitable trend for the future development that the subsidies for new energy buses are declining year by year and the product technical indicators are steadily improving.The era of comprehensive market competition is coming.The Outline of the 13th Five Year Plan for Urban Public Transport Development clearly states that by 2020,the number of new energy buses in the field of urban public transport will reach 200000,and there is still huge space for the development of new energy buses.Bus enterprises need to actively respond and take the initiative.We should seize the golden time before the decline of subsidies,actively respond to the negative impact of the decline of subsidies,accelerate the research and development of core technologies and technology reserves,strive to improve the level of product technology,actively explore new business models,and jointly promote the healthy and rapid development of the new energy bus industry.

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